Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to constrain any capacity for new invasions elsewhere in 2026. Russian forces recorded net territorial losses in April and early May amid intensified Ukrainian drone and counterstrike operations, with advances averaging under 3 square kilometers per day and high casualties exceeding recruitment. Recent attempts at a brief Trump-mediated ceasefire in early May produced only limited pauses, while Moscow doubled down on maximalist territorial demands focused solely on Donbas. No verified troop movements or official statements indicate preparations against Moldova, the Baltics, or other neighbors, and NATO deterrence remains intact. These battlefield realities and resource commitments underpin trader consensus that Russia will not open a second front this year.