Russia's ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine continues to consume substantial military resources, with forces focused on incremental advances in Donbas and facing monthly casualties exceeding 30,000 alongside recruitment shortfalls that analysts describe as unsustainable for opening new fronts. Official statements and battlefield assessments through mid-2026 emphasize consolidation of existing gains over expansion, while U.S. and NATO assessments characterize Moscow's conventional posture as persistent yet constrained by economic sanctions, equipment losses, and commitments to its near abroad. Reports of potential limited provocations or hybrid actions targeting NATO's eastern flank, such as drone incursions or border incidents, remain distinct from full-scale invasions and have not shifted into verified preparations for operations against additional states. This sustained focus, combined with diplomatic and alliance deterrence signals, underpins the market's strong consensus against a new invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Россия в другую страну в 2026 году?
Вторгнется ли Россия в другую страну в 2026 году?
Да
5% вероятность
$400,306 Объем
$400,306 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$400,306 Объем
$400,306 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine continues to consume substantial military resources, with forces focused on incremental advances in Donbas and facing monthly casualties exceeding 30,000 alongside recruitment shortfalls that analysts describe as unsustainable for opening new fronts. Official statements and battlefield assessments through mid-2026 emphasize consolidation of existing gains over expansion, while U.S. and NATO assessments characterize Moscow's conventional posture as persistent yet constrained by economic sanctions, equipment losses, and commitments to its near abroad. Reports of potential limited provocations or hybrid actions targeting NATO's eastern flank, such as drone incursions or border incidents, remain distinct from full-scale invasions and have not shifted into verified preparations for operations against additional states. This sustained focus, combined with diplomatic and alliance deterrence signals, underpins the market's strong consensus against a new invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$400,306Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine continues to consume substantial military resources, with forces focused on incremental advances in Donbas and facing monthly casualties exceeding 30,000 alongside recruitment shortfalls that analysts describe as unsustainable for opening new fronts. Official statements and battlefield assessments through mid-2026 emphasize consolidation of existing gains over expansion, while U.S. and NATO assessments characterize Moscow's conventional posture as persistent yet constrained by economic sanctions, equipment losses, and commitments to its near abroad. Reports of potential limited provocations or hybrid actions targeting NATO's eastern flank, such as drone incursions or border incidents, remain distinct from full-scale invasions and have not shifted into verified preparations for operations against additional states. This sustained focus, combined with diplomatic and alliance deterrence signals, underpins the market's strong consensus against a new invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$400,306Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine continues to consume substantial military resources, with forces focused on incremental advances in Donbas and facing monthly casualties exceeding 30,000 alongside recruitment shortfalls that analysts describe as unsustainable for opening new fronts. Official statements and battlefield assessments through mid-2026 emphasize consolidation of existing gains over expansion, while U.S. and NATO assessments characterize Moscow's conventional posture as persistent yet constrained by economic sanctions, equipment losses, and commitments to its near abroad. Reports of potential limited provocations or hybrid actions targeting NATO's eastern flank, such as drone incursions or border incidents, remain distinct from full-scale invasions and have not shifted into verified preparations for operations against additional states. This sustained focus, combined with diplomatic and alliance deterrence signals, underpins the market's strong consensus against a new invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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