Spotify’s monthly active users stand at 761 million following Q1 2026 results, with company guidance pointing to roughly 778 million by mid-year and a long-term target of 1 billion only by 2030. Current growth of 11–12% year-over-year adds roughly 80–90 million users annually, far short of the roughly 240 million needed in the remaining five months of 2026. Traders therefore assign a 92% implied probability to “No,” reflecting consistent earnings commentary, historical patterns, and the absence of any major expansion catalyst such as a sudden market entry or pricing shift that could accelerate adoption. A late-year surge in emerging markets or aggressive promotions could theoretically close the gap, yet precedent suggests such acceleration is improbable before year-end.