Tesla’s Robovan remains a pre-production concept unveiled in 2024 with no confirmed manufacturing timeline, order process, or regulatory pathway as of October 2026, while the company has shifted focus to Cybercab production ramp-up, limited unsupervised deployments in Texas, and Model Y-based robotaxi fleets. Traders see the 92% “No” odds as reflecting realistic delays typical for larger autonomous platforms, including supply chain scaling, safety validation, and approvals that have already pushed Cybercab volume targets. A surprise early order opening could occur only if Tesla accelerates Robovan for niche uses like event transport, but current evidence points to 2027 or later resolution.