Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder update confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, with the company instead focusing capital spending on battery capacity and manufacturing lines at Giga Texas. Early prototype builds began in February and continued modestly through Q2, but these remain limited by federal safety standards capping sales of steering-wheel-free vehicles and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving capabilities. Traders see the 87% implied probability for no sales at or below $30,000 this year as reflecting these confirmed timeline shifts, ongoing dependence on FSD software maturity, and typical regulatory hurdles that have historically delayed robotaxi deployments. Key catalysts ahead include further FSD version releases and any NHTSA exemptions that could accelerate limited sales.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Будет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Да
14% вероятность
$47,914 Объем
$47,914 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$47,914 Объем
$47,914 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder update confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, with the company instead focusing capital spending on battery capacity and manufacturing lines at Giga Texas. Early prototype builds began in February and continued modestly through Q2, but these remain limited by federal safety standards capping sales of steering-wheel-free vehicles and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving capabilities. Traders see the 87% implied probability for no sales at or below $30,000 this year as reflecting these confirmed timeline shifts, ongoing dependence on FSD software maturity, and typical regulatory hurdles that have historically delayed robotaxi deployments. Key catalysts ahead include further FSD version releases and any NHTSA exemptions that could accelerate limited sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$47,914Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder update confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, with the company instead focusing capital spending on battery capacity and manufacturing lines at Giga Texas. Early prototype builds began in February and continued modestly through Q2, but these remain limited by federal safety standards capping sales of steering-wheel-free vehicles and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving capabilities. Traders see the 87% implied probability for no sales at or below $30,000 this year as reflecting these confirmed timeline shifts, ongoing dependence on FSD software maturity, and typical regulatory hurdles that have historically delayed robotaxi deployments. Key catalysts ahead include further FSD version releases and any NHTSA exemptions that could accelerate limited sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$47,914Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder update confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, with the company instead focusing capital spending on battery capacity and manufacturing lines at Giga Texas. Early prototype builds began in February and continued modestly through Q2, but these remain limited by federal safety standards capping sales of steering-wheel-free vehicles and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving capabilities. Traders see the 87% implied probability for no sales at or below $30,000 this year as reflecting these confirmed timeline shifts, ongoing dependence on FSD software maturity, and typical regulatory hurdles that have historically delayed robotaxi deployments. Key catalysts ahead include further FSD version releases and any NHTSA exemptions that could accelerate limited sales.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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