Recent NOAA and multi-model forecasts indicate the 2026-27 El Niño is on track for record strength, supporting the 78% market-implied odds for a new high. As of mid-September 2026, Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have reached +2.9°C and continue climbing, with eastern equatorial Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C amid a deep subsurface heat reservoir that accelerated development from May onward. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 and 75% odds that the October-December Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will top +2.5°C, surpassing the 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaks. Ensemble medians from systems including GFDL SPEAR project a November maximum near +3.6–4.0°C in Niño-3.4, with most runs exceeding prior records. The event is expected to peak before additional model updates refine the final ranking against historical benchmarks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Эль-Ниньо 2026–27 года самым сильным за всю историю наблюдений?
Будет ли Эль-Ниньо 2026–27 года самым сильным за всю историю наблюдений?
Да
70% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
Да
70% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Recent NOAA and multi-model forecasts indicate the 2026-27 El Niño is on track for record strength, supporting the 78% market-implied odds for a new high. As of mid-September 2026, Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have reached +2.9°C and continue climbing, with eastern equatorial Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C amid a deep subsurface heat reservoir that accelerated development from May onward. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 and 75% odds that the October-December Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will top +2.5°C, surpassing the 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaks. Ensemble medians from systems including GFDL SPEAR project a November maximum near +3.6–4.0°C in Niño-3.4, with most runs exceeding prior records. The event is expected to peak before additional model updates refine the final ranking against historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$703Дата окончания
1 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Recent NOAA and multi-model forecasts indicate the 2026-27 El Niño is on track for record strength, supporting the 78% market-implied odds for a new high. As of mid-September 2026, Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have reached +2.9°C and continue climbing, with eastern equatorial Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C amid a deep subsurface heat reservoir that accelerated development from May onward. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 and 75% odds that the October-December Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will top +2.5°C, surpassing the 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaks. Ensemble medians from systems including GFDL SPEAR project a November maximum near +3.6–4.0°C in Niño-3.4, with most runs exceeding prior records. The event is expected to peak before additional model updates refine the final ranking against historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Объем
$703Дата окончания
1 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA and multi-model forecasts indicate the 2026-27 El Niño is on track for record strength, supporting the 78% market-implied odds for a new high. As of mid-September 2026, Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have reached +2.9°C and continue climbing, with eastern equatorial Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C amid a deep subsurface heat reservoir that accelerated development from May onward. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 and 75% odds that the October-December Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will top +2.5°C, surpassing the 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaks. Ensemble medians from systems including GFDL SPEAR project a November maximum near +3.6–4.0°C in Niño-3.4, with most runs exceeding prior records. The event is expected to peak before additional model updates refine the final ranking against historical benchmarks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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