Missouri voters approved a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom in 2024, establishing a baseline right to abortion that the current legislatively referred measure seeks to repeal while also codifying permanent restrictions on gender transition procedures for minors. Recent polling indicates that combining these elements has not generated sufficient statewide support to overcome the prior result, with the transgender care prohibition polling strongly on its own yet failing to lift overall approval for broader abortion limits. The measure cleared the legislature in 2025 and heads to the November 2026 ballot, but legislative momentum on separate bills to extend the existing 2023 gender-care restrictions has not translated into comparable voter enthusiasm for the constitutional package. Trader consensus at 90 percent against passage reflects these structural headwinds and the absence of new developments that would shift the underlying electoral math.