The US military's January 3, 2026, operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has been the dominant recent development shaping trader views on this market. That raid, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to longstanding narco-terrorism charges, represented a high-profile, large-scale intervention with few precedents in recent decades. Since then, US actions have centered on managing the Venezuelan transition, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than initiating comparable operations elsewhere. No official statements, troop movements, or intelligence indicators point to active plans targeting additional sitting heads of state or equivalent figures before year-end. With roughly four months remaining in 2026 and no emerging catalysts such as new indictments, escalatory diplomacy, or congressional authorizations for further extraterritorial actions, traders assign only a slim implied probability to another such capture occurring. Historical patterns of infrequent US-led leader apprehensions reinforce the current consensus reflected in the 94.5% price on "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗахватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Захватят ли США еще одного мирового лидера в 2026 году?
Да
6% вероятность
$81,054 Объем
$81,054 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$81,054 Объем
$81,054 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 3, 2026, operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has been the dominant recent development shaping trader views on this market. That raid, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to longstanding narco-terrorism charges, represented a high-profile, large-scale intervention with few precedents in recent decades. Since then, US actions have centered on managing the Venezuelan transition, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than initiating comparable operations elsewhere.
No official statements, troop movements, or intelligence indicators point to active plans targeting additional sitting heads of state or equivalent figures before year-end. With roughly four months remaining in 2026 and no emerging catalysts such as new indictments, escalatory diplomacy, or congressional authorizations for further extraterritorial actions, traders assign only a slim implied probability to another such capture occurring. Historical patterns of infrequent US-led leader apprehensions reinforce the current consensus reflected in the 94.5% price on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$81,054Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 3, 2026, operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has been the dominant recent development shaping trader views on this market. That raid, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to longstanding narco-terrorism charges, represented a high-profile, large-scale intervention with few precedents in recent decades. Since then, US actions have centered on managing the Venezuelan transition, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than initiating comparable operations elsewhere.
No official statements, troop movements, or intelligence indicators point to active plans targeting additional sitting heads of state or equivalent figures before year-end. With roughly four months remaining in 2026 and no emerging catalysts such as new indictments, escalatory diplomacy, or congressional authorizations for further extraterritorial actions, traders assign only a slim implied probability to another such capture occurring. Historical patterns of infrequent US-led leader apprehensions reinforce the current consensus reflected in the 94.5% price on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$81,054Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's January 3, 2026, operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has been the dominant recent development shaping trader views on this market. That raid, conducted under the Trump administration and tied to longstanding narco-terrorism charges, represented a high-profile, large-scale intervention with few precedents in recent decades. Since then, US actions have centered on managing the Venezuelan transition, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than initiating comparable operations elsewhere. No official statements, troop movements, or intelligence indicators point to active plans targeting additional sitting heads of state or equivalent figures before year-end. With roughly four months remaining in 2026 and no emerging catalysts such as new indictments, escalatory diplomacy, or congressional authorizations for further extraterritorial actions, traders assign only a slim implied probability to another such capture occurring. Historical patterns of infrequent US-led leader apprehensions reinforce the current consensus reflected in the 94.5% price on "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы