**Trader consensus at 96.4% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the rapid de-escalation of early-year tensions.** In January 2026, President Trump publicly refused to rule out military options to acquire the Danish autonomous territory for national security reasons, prompting tariff threats and European troop deployments to Greenland that highlighted NATO alliance risks. Bipartisan congressional pushback and explicit warnings that force would undermine Article 5 further constrained options. By late January, Trump reversed course at Davos, ruling out military action and tariffs following diplomatic engagement. With no subsequent military preparations or escalatory moves through mid-August, traders view an invasion as blocked by alliance commitments, congressional war powers requirements, and the absence of viable triggers. Realistic shifts remain limited to major unforeseen Arctic developments, such as direct great-power confrontation, though current trajectories show little indication of such change before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Гренландию в 2026 году?
Вторгнутся ли США в Гренландию в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$1,424,514 Объем
$1,424,514 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$1,424,514 Объем
$1,424,514 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus at 96.4% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the rapid de-escalation of early-year tensions.** In January 2026, President Trump publicly refused to rule out military options to acquire the Danish autonomous territory for national security reasons, prompting tariff threats and European troop deployments to Greenland that highlighted NATO alliance risks. Bipartisan congressional pushback and explicit warnings that force would undermine Article 5 further constrained options. By late January, Trump reversed course at Davos, ruling out military action and tariffs following diplomatic engagement. With no subsequent military preparations or escalatory moves through mid-August, traders view an invasion as blocked by alliance commitments, congressional war powers requirements, and the absence of viable triggers. Realistic shifts remain limited to major unforeseen Arctic developments, such as direct great-power confrontation, though current trajectories show little indication of such change before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Объем
$1,424,514Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus at 96.4% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the rapid de-escalation of early-year tensions.** In January 2026, President Trump publicly refused to rule out military options to acquire the Danish autonomous territory for national security reasons, prompting tariff threats and European troop deployments to Greenland that highlighted NATO alliance risks. Bipartisan congressional pushback and explicit warnings that force would undermine Article 5 further constrained options. By late January, Trump reversed course at Davos, ruling out military action and tariffs following diplomatic engagement. With no subsequent military preparations or escalatory moves through mid-August, traders view an invasion as blocked by alliance commitments, congressional war powers requirements, and the absence of viable triggers. Realistic shifts remain limited to major unforeseen Arctic developments, such as direct great-power confrontation, though current trajectories show little indication of such change before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,424,514Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 96.4% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the rapid de-escalation of early-year tensions.** In January 2026, President Trump publicly refused to rule out military options to acquire the Danish autonomous territory for national security reasons, prompting tariff threats and European troop deployments to Greenland that highlighted NATO alliance risks. Bipartisan congressional pushback and explicit warnings that force would undermine Article 5 further constrained options. By late January, Trump reversed course at Davos, ruling out military action and tariffs following diplomatic engagement. With no subsequent military preparations or escalatory moves through mid-August, traders view an invasion as blocked by alliance commitments, congressional war powers requirements, and the absence of viable triggers. Realistic shifts remain limited to major unforeseen Arctic developments, such as direct great-power confrontation, though current trajectories show little indication of such change before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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