The absence of congressional authorization for military force, large-scale troop deployments, or formal declarations of war against Mexico underpins trader expectations that no invasion will occur in 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico diplomacy centers on border security cooperation, counternarcotics joint operations, and the July 2026 USMCA review, with recent statements from both governments emphasizing targeted actions against cartels through Mexican-led efforts rather than unilateral intervention. Mexican authorities have conducted high-profile raids aided by U.S. intelligence to address fentanyl production, while U.S. officials have framed proposals as limited support within existing frameworks. Constitutional requirements for war powers and robust bilateral economic ties continue to constrain escalation, with no evidence of the mobilization needed for full-scale operations.