Recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have already reached +2.8–2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region, with official NOAA and WMO assessments placing greater than 90% odds on a very strong El Niño peaking this fall or early winter. Multi-model ensembles converge on further intensification through atmospheric-ocean coupling, consistent with the rapid onset and subsurface heat content observed since spring 2026. This data underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability for a super El Niño, defined by peak anomalies meeting or exceeding historical thresholds around +2.0°C or higher. While model agreement is unusually tight, realistic challenges include potential overestimation by dynamical forecasts or abrupt atmospheric shifts that could moderate the peak before resolution criteria are met.