Traders assign a 96.1 percent probability that Tucker Carlson will not announce a presidential candidacy by June 30, reflecting the absence of any recent public statements, campaign filings, or organizational steps signaling an imminent bid. Carlson continues to focus on his independent media platform, conducting interviews and offering commentary on foreign policy and domestic issues without launching exploratory efforts or assembling a political team. Speculation about his future centers on the 2028 cycle rather than an accelerated timeline, consistent with his stated reluctance to enter electoral politics directly. A late announcement could still occur if prompted by rapid shifts in the Republican field, major geopolitical developments, or personal reassessment, though such catalysts remain absent in the current environment.