US territorial annexation faces steep constitutional, congressional, and international hurdles that have prevented new claims for decades, with current US policy emphasizing alliances, diplomacy, and existing borders over expansion. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active claims, legislative proposals, or diplomatic signals indicating imminent action in 2026, consistent with historical base rates for such events. Late-breaking developments such as major military victories leading to occupied territory, formal cession treaties ratified by the Senate, or extraordinary executive actions could still shift probabilities, though each would require overcoming significant legal and political opposition.