Historical conversion rates for open-play penalties in FIFA World Cups stand at 79.1% since 1978, closely matching the current trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% implied probability for a made result on the tournament's first spot-kick. Elite international strikers enter the event in strong form, and factors such as goalkeeper training or video-assisted review have not meaningfully altered long-standing patterns. Early group-stage pressure tends to align with routine league conditions rather than the heightened tension of penalty shootouts, where success rates decline. No major rule changes, key taker absences, or other roster developments shift this established baseline ahead of the opening matches.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMade
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 июл. 2026 г.
Made
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 июл. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Historical conversion rates for open-play penalties in FIFA World Cups stand at 79.1% since 1978, closely matching the current trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% implied probability for a made result on the tournament's first spot-kick. Elite international strikers enter the event in strong form, and factors such as goalkeeper training or video-assisted review have not meaningfully altered long-standing patterns. Early group-stage pressure tends to align with routine league conditions rather than the heightened tension of penalty shootouts, where success rates decline. No major rule changes, key taker absences, or other roster developments shift this established baseline ahead of the opening matches.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Объем
$6,070Дата окончания
20 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Historical conversion rates for open-play penalties in FIFA World Cups stand at 79.1% since 1978, closely matching the current trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% implied probability for a made result on the tournament's first spot-kick. Elite international strikers enter the event in strong form, and factors such as goalkeeper training or video-assisted review have not meaningfully altered long-standing patterns. Early group-stage pressure tends to align with routine league conditions rather than the heightened tension of penalty shootouts, where success rates decline. No major rule changes, key taker absences, or other roster developments shift this established baseline ahead of the opening matches.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,070Дата окончания
20 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical conversion rates for open-play penalties in FIFA World Cups stand at 79.1% since 1978, closely matching the current trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% implied probability for a made result on the tournament's first spot-kick. Elite international strikers enter the event in strong form, and factors such as goalkeeper training or video-assisted review have not meaningfully altered long-standing patterns. Early group-stage pressure tends to align with routine league conditions rather than the heightened tension of penalty shootouts, where success rates decline. No major rule changes, key taker absences, or other roster developments shift this established baseline ahead of the opening matches.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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