Qatar enters Group B of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the clear underdog to finish last, with traders assigning the highest implied probability based on its 56th FIFA ranking, limited depth, and historically poor results in major tournaments including a group-stage exit as 2022 hosts. Switzerland, ranked 19th with consistent European qualifying success and strong squad experience, sits as the heavy favorite to top the group, while co-host Canada (around 30th) and Bosnia and Herzegovina benefit from recent form and CONCACAF/UEFA pedigree that positions both ahead of Qatar in most simulations. The opening fixtures, including Canada versus Bosnia on June 12, underscore the gap, though upsets remain possible given the single-elimination nature of group standings and potential for draws or injuries to reshape points tallies.