Group D features co-host USA alongside Türkiye, Paraguay, and Australia in a notably balanced field where all four sides have realistic paths to the top two spots and round-of-32 advancement. The USA’s home-soil edge and recent results under Mauricio Pochettino are offset by inconsistent form and pressure, while Türkiye’s technical depth and attacking talent position it as a near-equal contender in trader pricing. Paraguay’s organized defense and set-piece threat, plus Australia’s disciplined pressing and physicality, keep the group tight, with matches starting June 12 and key fixtures like USA–Türkiye on June 25 still to come. This parity explains the near-even implied probabilities for the top two nations.