Türkiye enter the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D alongside the United States, Paraguay, and Australia after ending a 24-year absence via UEFA playoffs. A balanced squad featuring Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Orkun Kökçü under coach Vincenzo Montella has fueled expectations of advancing from a winnable group, reflected in the lower implied probability of a group-stage exit. Defensive solidity from players such as Abdülkerim Bardakçı and Merih Demiral, combined with attacking depth, supports the elevated consensus around Round of 16 elimination, while the sizable share for deeper runs aligns with their status as a potential dark horse capable of quarterfinal or further progress. Recent pre-tournament preparation and the favorable draw have reinforced this trader positioning ahead of their opening matches.