Spain leads the tightly bunched World Cup winner probabilities at 17% due to its status as defending European champions and recent strong results in friendlies, while France sits just behind at 16% on the strength of its elite squad depth and star power. England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil trail closely in the 8-11% range, reflecting comparable recent form, high FIFA rankings, and proven tournament pedigrees among the top contenders. With the expanded field and no dominant side separating itself in pre-tournament preparations, the competitive balance across these nations—bolstered by solid qualification records and minimal disruption from injuries—has kept implied probabilities clustered as traders weigh multiple realistic paths to the July final.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИспания 17.0%
Франция 16.1%
Англия 10.8%
Португалия 10.8%
$1,958,866,297 Объем
$1,958,866,297 Объем
Испания
17%
Франция
16%
Англия
11%
Португалия
11%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
8%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
4%
Норвегия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
Марокко
2%
Мексика
1%
Швейцария
1%
Турция
1%
США
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Австрия
<1%
Канада
<1%
Швеция
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Иран
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Босния и Герцеговина
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
ДР Конго
<1%
Чехия
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Панама
<1%
Ирак
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Испания 17.0%
Франция 16.1%
Англия 10.8%
Португалия 10.8%
$1,958,866,297 Объем
$1,958,866,297 Объем
Испания
17%
Франция
16%
Англия
11%
Португалия
11%
Аргентина
9%
Бразилия
8%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
4%
Норвегия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Япония
2%
Марокко
2%
Мексика
1%
Швейцария
1%
Турция
1%
США
1%
Уругвай
1%
Хорватия
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Австрия
<1%
Канада
<1%
Швеция
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Иран
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Босния и Герцеговина
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
ДР Конго
<1%
Чехия
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Панама
<1%
Ирак
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the tightly bunched World Cup winner probabilities at 17% due to its status as defending European champions and recent strong results in friendlies, while France sits just behind at 16% on the strength of its elite squad depth and star power. England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil trail closely in the 8-11% range, reflecting comparable recent form, high FIFA rankings, and proven tournament pedigrees among the top contenders. With the expanded field and no dominant side separating itself in pre-tournament preparations, the competitive balance across these nations—bolstered by solid qualification records and minimal disruption from injuries—has kept implied probabilities clustered as traders weigh multiple realistic paths to the July final.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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