Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party, including constitutional changes removing presidential term limits in 2018 and ongoing military and personnel purges, underpins the 95.3% implied probability that he remains in power through December 2026. Recent developments, such as his July 2026 appointment of loyalists like Cai Qi to key training and discipline roles, signal preparations for a fourth term at the 2027 Party Congress rather than any transition. No credible public challenges, health disclosures, or succession announcements have emerged in the past year to alter this trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden incapacity, elite-level economic or foreign-policy crises prompting internal party action, or an unanticipated resignation, though these remain low-probability events given current institutional controls.