Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 3.6% at 34.7% implied probability narrowly ahead of 3.7%+ at 33.3%, reflecting skepticism toward official forecasts like the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projection of 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January amid Middle East conflict escalation and energy shocks—and the OECD's March estimate of 2.9%. Strong emerging market contributions (IMF at 3.9%) and AI-fueled productivity in advanced economies (1.8% average) underpin the elevated trader consensus around mid-3.6%, bolstered by resilient Q1 nowcasts and anticipated US fiscal stimulus. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation versus renewed trade barriers, with Q2 GDP releases and a potential IMF July update poised to sharpen positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
≤2.9% 21%
3.4% 7.8%
3.5% 6.0%
3.2% 5.4%
$16,920 ปริมาณ
$16,920 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
21%
3.0%
4%
3.1%
4%
3.2%
5%
3.3%
1%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
6%
3.6%
40%
3.7%+
33%
≤2.9% 21%
3.4% 7.8%
3.5% 6.0%
3.2% 5.4%
$16,920 ปริมาณ
$16,920 ปริมาณ
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,756 ปริมาณ
21%
3.0%
$405 ปริมาณ
4%
3.1%
$376 ปริมาณ
4%
3.2%
$1,583 ปริมาณ
5%
3.3%
$3,034 ปริมาณ
1%
3.4%
$3,527 ปริมาณ
8%
3.5%
$3,006 ปริมาณ
6%
3.6%
$452 ปริมาณ
40%
3.7%+
$782 ปริมาณ
33%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 3.6% at 34.7% implied probability narrowly ahead of 3.7%+ at 33.3%, reflecting skepticism toward official forecasts like the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projection of 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January amid Middle East conflict escalation and energy shocks—and the OECD's March estimate of 2.9%. Strong emerging market contributions (IMF at 3.9%) and AI-fueled productivity in advanced economies (1.8% average) underpin the elevated trader consensus around mid-3.6%, bolstered by resilient Q1 nowcasts and anticipated US fiscal stimulus. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation versus renewed trade barriers, with Q2 GDP releases and a potential IMF July update poised to sharpen positioning.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,920วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 3.6% at 34.7% implied probability narrowly ahead of 3.7%+ at 33.3%, reflecting skepticism toward official forecasts like the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projection of 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January amid Middle East conflict escalation and energy shocks—and the OECD's March estimate of 2.9%. Strong emerging market contributions (IMF at 3.9%) and AI-fueled productivity in advanced economies (1.8% average) underpin the elevated trader consensus around mid-3.6%, bolstered by resilient Q1 nowcasts and anticipated US fiscal stimulus. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation versus renewed trade barriers, with Q2 GDP releases and a potential IMF July update poised to sharpen positioning.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,920วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 3.6% at 34.7% implied probability narrowly ahead of 3.7%+ at 33.3%, reflecting skepticism toward official forecasts like the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projection of 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January amid Middle East conflict escalation and energy shocks—and the OECD's March estimate of 2.9%. Strong emerging market contributions (IMF at 3.9%) and AI-fueled productivity in advanced economies (1.8% average) underpin the elevated trader consensus around mid-3.6%, bolstered by resilient Q1 nowcasts and anticipated US fiscal stimulus. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation versus renewed trade barriers, with Q2 GDP releases and a potential IMF July update poised to sharpen positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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