Global records from the USGS show magnitude 9+ events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent in 2011 and none exceeding 8.0 so far in 2026. Subduction-zone megathrust faults capable of such quakes typically have recurrence intervals of centuries, and the brief window remaining until 2027 leaves little opportunity for an event of this scale. Current seismic monitoring reveals no unusual clustering or foreshock activity that would elevate near-term risk. Traders therefore assign overwhelming odds to “No,” reflecting both the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering conditions. An unexpected rupture on a previously quiescent segment remains possible yet statistically remote given the compressed timeframe and stable observational data.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% โอกาส
$273,727 ปริมาณ
$273,727 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$273,727 ปริมาณ
$273,727 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global records from the USGS show magnitude 9+ events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent in 2011 and none exceeding 8.0 so far in 2026. Subduction-zone megathrust faults capable of such quakes typically have recurrence intervals of centuries, and the brief window remaining until 2027 leaves little opportunity for an event of this scale. Current seismic monitoring reveals no unusual clustering or foreshock activity that would elevate near-term risk. Traders therefore assign overwhelming odds to “No,” reflecting both the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering conditions. An unexpected rupture on a previously quiescent segment remains possible yet statistically remote given the compressed timeframe and stable observational data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$273,727วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global records from the USGS show magnitude 9+ events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent in 2011 and none exceeding 8.0 so far in 2026. Subduction-zone megathrust faults capable of such quakes typically have recurrence intervals of centuries, and the brief window remaining until 2027 leaves little opportunity for an event of this scale. Current seismic monitoring reveals no unusual clustering or foreshock activity that would elevate near-term risk. Traders therefore assign overwhelming odds to “No,” reflecting both the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering conditions. An unexpected rupture on a previously quiescent segment remains possible yet statistically remote given the compressed timeframe and stable observational data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$273,727วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global records from the USGS show magnitude 9+ events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent in 2011 and none exceeding 8.0 so far in 2026. Subduction-zone megathrust faults capable of such quakes typically have recurrence intervals of centuries, and the brief window remaining until 2027 leaves little opportunity for an event of this scale. Current seismic monitoring reveals no unusual clustering or foreshock activity that would elevate near-term risk. Traders therefore assign overwhelming odds to “No,” reflecting both the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering conditions. An unexpected rupture on a previously quiescent segment remains possible yet statistically remote given the compressed timeframe and stable observational data.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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