Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with only five recorded globally since 1900 according to USGS data. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and historical recurrence intervals average 15–25 years or longer. With roughly 15 months remaining in the market window and no elevated global seismic rate or anomalous strain signals reported by monitoring agencies, recent activity has been limited to lower-magnitude events such as an 8.8 in 2025 and scattered M7+ quakes. While clustering or unexpected stress release on a high-hazard margin could theoretically occur, the short timeframe and stable observational baseline strongly support the current market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
3% โอกาส
$328,508 ปริมาณ
$328,508 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
3% โอกาส
$328,508 ปริมาณ
$328,508 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with only five recorded globally since 1900 according to USGS data. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and historical recurrence intervals average 15–25 years or longer. With roughly 15 months remaining in the market window and no elevated global seismic rate or anomalous strain signals reported by monitoring agencies, recent activity has been limited to lower-magnitude events such as an 8.8 in 2025 and scattered M7+ quakes. While clustering or unexpected stress release on a high-hazard margin could theoretically occur, the short timeframe and stable observational baseline strongly support the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$328,508วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with only five recorded globally since 1900 according to USGS data. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and historical recurrence intervals average 15–25 years or longer. With roughly 15 months remaining in the market window and no elevated global seismic rate or anomalous strain signals reported by monitoring agencies, recent activity has been limited to lower-magnitude events such as an 8.8 in 2025 and scattered M7+ quakes. While clustering or unexpected stress release on a high-hazard margin could theoretically occur, the short timeframe and stable observational baseline strongly support the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$328,508วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with only five recorded globally since 1900 according to USGS data. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and historical recurrence intervals average 15–25 years or longer. With roughly 15 months remaining in the market window and no elevated global seismic rate or anomalous strain signals reported by monitoring agencies, recent activity has been limited to lower-magnitude events such as an 8.8 in 2025 and scattered M7+ quakes. While clustering or unexpected stress release on a high-hazard margin could theoretically occur, the short timeframe and stable observational baseline strongly support the current market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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