Recent heavy rainfall across parts of the Midwest Corn Belt has eased drought stress in key production areas while delaying harvest progress, keeping the share of corn acreage in moderate or worse drought (D1-D4 on the U.S. Drought Monitor) near 21% as of late September. Dry spells earlier in the season expanded coverage in the southern Plains and lower Midwest, but October precipitation improvements, including remnants of tropical moisture, have produced one- to two-category gains in states like Kansas and Oklahoma. NOAA and USDA monitoring indicate that soil moisture recovery in northern and central Corn Belt zones now supports the market's strong preference for the 15-24% bin, though model uncertainty around next week's scattered showers could shift conditions before the mid-October update.
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