Google’s Project Suncatcher prototype satellite, carrying just four TPUs for a one-server-scale test of radiation tolerance and basic Gemini inference, launches today aboard SpaceX’s Transporter-18 mission, marking the first in-orbit validation of major-lab AI hardware but falling far short of the 100-accelerator threshold required for market resolution. Trader sentiment remains subdued, with 2026 odds near 2% and 2027 at 24%, reflecting the gap between these early demonstrations and operational orbital data centers. SpaceX’s Starmind plans target scaled deployments from late 2027, while Starcloud and others pursue FCC filings for thousands of GPU/TPU-equipped satellites; near-term catalysts include Google’s planned 2027 laser-link tests and any Starship-enabled larger payloads that could accelerate timelines.