Andrey Gyurov holds a commanding position in the first-round second-place market due to exit polls from the October 25 vote consistently placing him second with roughly 32 percent support, well ahead of the third-place pro-Russian candidate at around 13 percent and all others in single digits. His backing from pro-Western opposition parties including We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, combined with his experience as caretaker prime minister and central bank deputy governor, consolidated reformist and EU-oriented voters behind his independent ticket. Pre-election surveys had shown a wider gap favoring incumbent Iliana Iotova, but Gyurov narrowed it sharply in the final weeks amid low turnout that fragmented remaining support across more than two dozen other candidates. Final certified results or any unusual shifts in late-counted ballots could still alter the exact ordering, though multiple agencies’ parallel counts point to a stable outcome ahead of the November 1 runoff.