De la Espriella's first-round lead of 43.7% to Cepeda's 40.9% on May 31 has anchored trader views on a right-wing victory in the June 21 runoff, with right-leaning support consolidating behind the tough-on-crime independent after center-right candidates like Paloma Valencia were eliminated. Recent Trump endorsement of de la Espriella and polling showing him ahead by roughly seven points have reinforced expectations of a moderate margin win for the right-wing candidate, though runoff turnout, coalition dynamics, and late shifts among first-round voters introduce uncertainty reflected in the elevated "Other" share and spread across de la Espriella's margin buckets. Cepeda's positioning as continuity with the outgoing Petro administration keeps his outright win priced as a lower-probability outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วColombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory
Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory
de la Espriella 10-15% 34%
de la Espriella 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella 0-5% 14%
de la Espriella 15%+ 13.0%
$78,499 ปริมาณ
$78,499 ปริมาณ
Jun 22, 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
13%
de la Espriella 10-15%
34%
de la Espriella 5-10%
31%
de la Espriella 0-5%
14%
Cepeda Castro Win
13%
de la Espriella 10-15% 34%
de la Espriella 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella 0-5% 14%
de la Espriella 15%+ 13.0%
$78,499 ปริมาณ
$78,499 ปริมาณ
Jun 22, 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
$19,335 ปริมาณ
13%
de la Espriella 10-15%
$19,061 ปริมาณ
34%
de la Espriella 5-10%
$13,675 ปริมาณ
31%
de la Espriella 0-5%
$16,686 ปริมาณ
14%
Cepeda Castro Win
$9,743 ปริมาณ
13%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.De la Espriella's first-round lead of 43.7% to Cepeda's 40.9% on May 31 has anchored trader views on a right-wing victory in the June 21 runoff, with right-leaning support consolidating behind the tough-on-crime independent after center-right candidates like Paloma Valencia were eliminated. Recent Trump endorsement of de la Espriella and polling showing him ahead by roughly seven points have reinforced expectations of a moderate margin win for the right-wing candidate, though runoff turnout, coalition dynamics, and late shifts among first-round voters introduce uncertainty reflected in the elevated "Other" share and spread across de la Espriella's margin buckets. Cepeda's positioning as continuity with the outgoing Petro administration keeps his outright win priced as a lower-probability outcome.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,499วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.De la Espriella's first-round lead of 43.7% to Cepeda's 40.9% on May 31 has anchored trader views on a right-wing victory in the June 21 runoff, with right-leaning support consolidating behind the tough-on-crime independent after center-right candidates like Paloma Valencia were eliminated. Recent Trump endorsement of de la Espriella and polling showing him ahead by roughly seven points have reinforced expectations of a moderate margin win for the right-wing candidate, though runoff turnout, coalition dynamics, and late shifts among first-round voters introduce uncertainty reflected in the elevated "Other" share and spread across de la Espriella's margin buckets. Cepeda's positioning as continuity with the outgoing Petro administration keeps his outright win priced as a lower-probability outcome.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,499วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...De la Espriella's first-round lead of 43.7% to Cepeda's 40.9% on May 31 has anchored trader views on a right-wing victory in the June 21 runoff, with right-leaning support consolidating behind the tough-on-crime independent after center-right candidates like Paloma Valencia were eliminated. Recent Trump endorsement of de la Espriella and polling showing him ahead by roughly seven points have reinforced expectations of a moderate margin win for the right-wing candidate, though runoff turnout, coalition dynamics, and late shifts among first-round voters introduce uncertainty reflected in the elevated "Other" share and spread across de la Espriella's margin buckets. Cepeda's positioning as continuity with the outgoing Petro administration keeps his outright win priced as a lower-probability outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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