Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven WTI crude prices above $100 per barrel in September before easing to around $91 as of early October 2026. These events created sharp supply concerns and inventory draws exceeding 400 million barrels since March, supporting elevated levels roughly 40% above pre-conflict baselines. However, the gap to the 2008 all-time high near $147 remains substantial, with moderating influences including partial supply recovery, G7 emergency stock releases, and softer demand forecasts from OPEC and China weighing on further upside. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, refinery margins, and any de-escalation signals that could influence near-term volatility and the path toward historical peaks.