**The current 95% implied probability against dissolution of the Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer) in 2026 reflects the absence of any acute government crisis or collapse triggers since the Jetten minority cabinet (D66-VVD-CDA) took office in February 2026 following the October 2025 snap election.** The cabinet, short of a majority in both chambers, is actively pursuing opposition support for its 2027 budget through targeted negotiations with parties including Progressief Nederland (PRO) and JA21/SGP. Finance Minister Eelco Heinen has expressed confidence in reaching a deal by late August to meet the Council of State deadline, emphasizing narrowing differences and cross-spectrum options rather than confrontation. Recent polling shows the coalition far from a majority, yet no confidence votes, coalition partner exits, or irreconcilable policy standoffs (such as the asylum or sanctions disputes that ended prior governments) have emerged. Dutch constitutional rules allow the monarch to dissolve the lower house on ministerial advice, triggering elections within three months, but this step has not been invoked. With the current term running to 2030 absent dissolution and the government focused on securing ad hoc majorities for routine legislation like the budget, traders see little basis for a 2026 snap election. Late-breaking developments, such as failed budget talks or new defections, remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.