Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, featuring lava flows from multiple vents, Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching several kilometers, forms the main driver behind the near-even odds on a VEI 2+ event. Italy's INGV monitoring shows persistent but variable activity levels since June, with recent August intensification producing aviation-disrupting ash yet no confirmed VEI 2 threshold breach so far. Key uncertainties include potential escalation in effusion rates or explosive vigor versus rapid decline, influenced by magma supply dynamics and flank stability. Continued real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data through year-end, alongside any new vent openings, could shift consensus on whether cumulative explosivity meets the index criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
0% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, featuring lava flows from multiple vents, Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching several kilometers, forms the main driver behind the near-even odds on a VEI 2+ event. Italy's INGV monitoring shows persistent but variable activity levels since June, with recent August intensification producing aviation-disrupting ash yet no confirmed VEI 2 threshold breach so far. Key uncertainties include potential escalation in effusion rates or explosive vigor versus rapid decline, influenced by magma supply dynamics and flank stability. Continued real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data through year-end, alongside any new vent openings, could shift consensus on whether cumulative explosivity meets the index criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, featuring lava flows from multiple vents, Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching several kilometers, forms the main driver behind the near-even odds on a VEI 2+ event. Italy's INGV monitoring shows persistent but variable activity levels since June, with recent August intensification producing aviation-disrupting ash yet no confirmed VEI 2 threshold breach so far. Key uncertainties include potential escalation in effusion rates or explosive vigor versus rapid decline, influenced by magma supply dynamics and flank stability. Continued real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data through year-end, alongside any new vent openings, could shift consensus on whether cumulative explosivity meets the index criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive phase, featuring lava flows from multiple vents, Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching several kilometers, forms the main driver behind the near-even odds on a VEI 2+ event. Italy's INGV monitoring shows persistent but variable activity levels since June, with recent August intensification producing aviation-disrupting ash yet no confirmed VEI 2 threshold breach so far. Key uncertainties include potential escalation in effusion rates or explosive vigor versus rapid decline, influenced by magma supply dynamics and flank stability. Continued real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data through year-end, alongside any new vent openings, could shift consensus on whether cumulative explosivity meets the index criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย