Charles Leclerc’s strong pace in both Friday practice sessions at the high-altitude Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez has positioned him as the narrow leader in the pole market, reflecting Ferrari’s effective cornering and straight-line balance under low-grip conditions. Max Verstappen’s five prior wins at the circuit and Red Bull’s recent resurgence keep him close behind, while Kimi Antonelli’s nine victories this season and Austin pole form sustain his 21.5% implied probability despite a recent illness. The bunched probabilities among Leclerc, Verstappen, and Antonelli underscore the tight one-lap battle expected among Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull, with Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton holding modest shares on the strength of recent podium contention and team momentum. Qualifying outcomes hinge on setup tweaks for the thin air and track evolution through Saturday sessions.