Red Bull leads the constructor pole market at 56% amid strong recent single-lap form from Max Verstappen, who dominated qualifying and the race at Singapore before the Austin weekend. McLaren sits at 46.5% on consistent pace from Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, while Ferrari at 40.5% prepares a new floor upgrade aimed at widening its operating window on the COTA layout. Mercedes trails at 35% despite leading the championship standings, with midfield squads like Racing Bulls and Alpine priced in the low-to-mid 30s reflecting limited top-end qualifying threats. Recent practice trends and COTA’s high-speed demands favor Red Bull’s current setup edge heading into qualifying.