**Trader consensus on "No" at 99.1% reflects the absence of any formal criminal charges or active investigation against Graham Platner since sexual assault allegations from a former girlfriend surfaced in early July 2026.** Platner, the former Democratic nominee in Maine’s U.S. Senate race, withdrew from the ballot days after the reports and has remained out of the public spotlight as a candidate. As of mid-August, he himself noted the lack of charges or investigation despite the claims falling within the statute of limitations. With the August 31 resolution date only days away and no reported police complaints, prosecutorial steps, or new evidence prompting swift action, markets price near-certainty that authorities will not file charges in the brief remaining window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain narrow and low-probability: a complainant filing a formal report triggering immediate law enforcement response, or an unexpected development such as new corroborating evidence surfacing and prompting rapid charging. Historical patterns show sexual assault allegations often require extended investigation before any charging decision, making last-minute action by the deadline highly improbable absent major new developments.