Official health authorities including the WHO and CDC have repeatedly stated that the Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods concluded by early July 2026. Hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta and require prolonged close contact for the rare person-to-person transmission seen with Andes virus, yielding an R0 generally below 1. This biological profile, combined with the absence of new cases months later and the need for multiple evolutionary changes to enable efficient airborne spread, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift would require documented mutation enabling broader transmission or an undetected large-scale outbreak, both considered highly improbable based on current surveillance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% โอกาส
$17,969,254 ปริมาณ
$17,969,254 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$17,969,254 ปริมาณ
$17,969,254 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Official health authorities including the WHO and CDC have repeatedly stated that the Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods concluded by early July 2026. Hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta and require prolonged close contact for the rare person-to-person transmission seen with Andes virus, yielding an R0 generally below 1. This biological profile, combined with the absence of new cases months later and the need for multiple evolutionary changes to enable efficient airborne spread, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift would require documented mutation enabling broader transmission or an undetected large-scale outbreak, both considered highly improbable based on current surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,969,254วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Official health authorities including the WHO and CDC have repeatedly stated that the Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods concluded by early July 2026. Hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta and require prolonged close contact for the rare person-to-person transmission seen with Andes virus, yielding an R0 generally below 1. This biological profile, combined with the absence of new cases months later and the need for multiple evolutionary changes to enable efficient airborne spread, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift would require documented mutation enabling broader transmission or an undetected large-scale outbreak, both considered highly improbable based on current surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,969,254วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Official health authorities including the WHO and CDC have repeatedly stated that the Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods concluded by early July 2026. Hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta and require prolonged close contact for the rare person-to-person transmission seen with Andes virus, yielding an R0 generally below 1. This biological profile, combined with the absence of new cases months later and the need for multiple evolutionary changes to enable efficient airborne spread, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift would require documented mutation enabling broader transmission or an undetected large-scale outbreak, both considered highly improbable based on current surveillance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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