Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and broader measures like the U-6 rate edging higher to 8.2 percent. Slowing monthly job gains, declining labor-force participation, and reduced net migration have created a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium that analysts expect will push the rate modestly higher over the remainder of the year. Forecasters currently project a 2026 peak near 4.8 percent, reflecting softer GDP growth around 1.8–2.1 percent and ongoing adjustments to prior strong employment levels. Upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, Federal Reserve policy communications, and any shifts in fiscal or immigration policy that could alter hiring trends and the market-implied path for the unemployment peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$388,682 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
4%
$388,682 ปริมาณ
5.0%
$102,277 ปริมาณ
28%
5.5%
$186,719 ปริมาณ
14%
6.0%
$52,180 ปริมาณ
13%
7.0%
$21,511 ปริมาณ
10%
10.0%
$25,994 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and broader measures like the U-6 rate edging higher to 8.2 percent. Slowing monthly job gains, declining labor-force participation, and reduced net migration have created a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium that analysts expect will push the rate modestly higher over the remainder of the year. Forecasters currently project a 2026 peak near 4.8 percent, reflecting softer GDP growth around 1.8–2.1 percent and ongoing adjustments to prior strong employment levels. Upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, Federal Reserve policy communications, and any shifts in fiscal or immigration policy that could alter hiring trends and the market-implied path for the unemployment peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$388,682วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and broader measures like the U-6 rate edging higher to 8.2 percent. Slowing monthly job gains, declining labor-force participation, and reduced net migration have created a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium that analysts expect will push the rate modestly higher over the remainder of the year. Forecasters currently project a 2026 peak near 4.8 percent, reflecting softer GDP growth around 1.8–2.1 percent and ongoing adjustments to prior strong employment levels. Upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, Federal Reserve policy communications, and any shifts in fiscal or immigration policy that could alter hiring trends and the market-implied path for the unemployment peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$388,682วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and broader measures like the U-6 rate edging higher to 8.2 percent. Slowing monthly job gains, declining labor-force participation, and reduced net migration have created a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium that analysts expect will push the rate modestly higher over the remainder of the year. Forecasters currently project a 2026 peak near 4.8 percent, reflecting softer GDP growth around 1.8–2.1 percent and ongoing adjustments to prior strong employment levels. Upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, Federal Reserve policy communications, and any shifts in fiscal or immigration policy that could alter hiring trends and the market-implied path for the unemployment peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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