**High year-to-date preliminary counts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) form the core driver of the 90.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** Through mid-September, preliminary reports reached 1,429, already exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,400 confirmed tornadoes. Confirmed counts lag but align with elevated activity, including a record pace in Illinois exceeding 200 by August and strong Midwest/Great Lakes contributions. Spring and early summer featured above-average outbreaks, with March–June alone producing hundreds of reports amid favorable instability patterns. Official SPC data show this pace continuing into summer, consistent with enhanced detection of weaker (EF0–EF1) events via modern radar and a climatologically active period. The remaining months (October–December) historically add 100–300 tornadoes, making a total below 1,250 improbable absent major downward revisions during final verification. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 1,250+ outcome include substantial reductions in preliminary reports after NWS damage surveys (common in high-report years) or an unusually quiet late-season period. However, current trajectories and the typical contribution from fall systems support the dominant trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 91%
1200–1249 4.5%
1150–1199 4.2%
1100–1149 2.9%
$83,252 ปริมาณ
$83,252 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1200–1249 4.5%
1150–1199 4.2%
1100–1149 2.9%
$83,252 ปริมาณ
$83,252 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,876 ปริมาณ
<1%
950–999
$3,761 ปริมาณ
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 ปริมาณ
<1%
1050–1099
$9,319 ปริมาณ
1%
1100–1149
$3,378 ปริมาณ
3%
1150–1199
$4,202 ปริมาณ
4%
1200–1249
$16,073 ปริมาณ
4%
1250+
$19,191 ปริมาณ
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**High year-to-date preliminary counts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) form the core driver of the 90.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** Through mid-September, preliminary reports reached 1,429, already exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,400 confirmed tornadoes. Confirmed counts lag but align with elevated activity, including a record pace in Illinois exceeding 200 by August and strong Midwest/Great Lakes contributions.
Spring and early summer featured above-average outbreaks, with March–June alone producing hundreds of reports amid favorable instability patterns. Official SPC data show this pace continuing into summer, consistent with enhanced detection of weaker (EF0–EF1) events via modern radar and a climatologically active period. The remaining months (October–December) historically add 100–300 tornadoes, making a total below 1,250 improbable absent major downward revisions during final verification.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 1,250+ outcome include substantial reductions in preliminary reports after NWS damage surveys (common in high-report years) or an unusually quiet late-season period. However, current trajectories and the typical contribution from fall systems support the dominant trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83,252วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 11, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**High year-to-date preliminary counts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) form the core driver of the 90.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** Through mid-September, preliminary reports reached 1,429, already exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,400 confirmed tornadoes. Confirmed counts lag but align with elevated activity, including a record pace in Illinois exceeding 200 by August and strong Midwest/Great Lakes contributions.
Spring and early summer featured above-average outbreaks, with March–June alone producing hundreds of reports amid favorable instability patterns. Official SPC data show this pace continuing into summer, consistent with enhanced detection of weaker (EF0–EF1) events via modern radar and a climatologically active period. The remaining months (October–December) historically add 100–300 tornadoes, making a total below 1,250 improbable absent major downward revisions during final verification.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 1,250+ outcome include substantial reductions in preliminary reports after NWS damage surveys (common in high-report years) or an unusually quiet late-season period. However, current trajectories and the typical contribution from fall systems support the dominant trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83,252วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 11, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**High year-to-date preliminary counts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) form the core driver of the 90.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** Through mid-September, preliminary reports reached 1,429, already exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,400 confirmed tornadoes. Confirmed counts lag but align with elevated activity, including a record pace in Illinois exceeding 200 by August and strong Midwest/Great Lakes contributions. Spring and early summer featured above-average outbreaks, with March–June alone producing hundreds of reports amid favorable instability patterns. Official SPC data show this pace continuing into summer, consistent with enhanced detection of weaker (EF0–EF1) events via modern radar and a climatologically active period. The remaining months (October–December) historically add 100–300 tornadoes, making a total below 1,250 improbable absent major downward revisions during final verification. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 1,250+ outcome include substantial reductions in preliminary reports after NWS damage surveys (common in high-report years) or an unusually quiet late-season period. However, current trajectories and the typical contribution from fall systems support the dominant trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย