Above-average formation forecasts from China's National Climate Center, projecting 24–26 named systems and 7–9 landfalls versus the long-term mean of roughly 7, anchor trader sentiment near 7–8 or higher for 2026. Multiple July landfalls, including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul, plus Typhoon Dolphin's imminent Zhejiang approach, have already contributed several events during the early peak period. ENSO transition toward El Niño favors more western Pacific activity and variable steering that can direct storms toward eastern and southern China coasts, while sea-surface temperatures and monsoon trough positioning add uncertainty for the August–October window. Remaining model spread on track and intensity keeps probabilities closely balanced between 7, 8, and greater-than-8 outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 50%
8 48%
7 47%
6 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
24%
5
38%
6
44%
7
47%
8
48%
Greater than 8
50%
Greater than 8 50%
8 48%
7 47%
6 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$92 ปริมาณ
24%
5
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
6
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
7
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
8
$0 ปริมาณ
48%
Greater than 8
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average formation forecasts from China's National Climate Center, projecting 24–26 named systems and 7–9 landfalls versus the long-term mean of roughly 7, anchor trader sentiment near 7–8 or higher for 2026. Multiple July landfalls, including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul, plus Typhoon Dolphin's imminent Zhejiang approach, have already contributed several events during the early peak period. ENSO transition toward El Niño favors more western Pacific activity and variable steering that can direct storms toward eastern and southern China coasts, while sea-surface temperatures and monsoon trough positioning add uncertainty for the August–October window. Remaining model spread on track and intensity keeps probabilities closely balanced between 7, 8, and greater-than-8 outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$92วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average formation forecasts from China's National Climate Center, projecting 24–26 named systems and 7–9 landfalls versus the long-term mean of roughly 7, anchor trader sentiment near 7–8 or higher for 2026. Multiple July landfalls, including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul, plus Typhoon Dolphin's imminent Zhejiang approach, have already contributed several events during the early peak period. ENSO transition toward El Niño favors more western Pacific activity and variable steering that can direct storms toward eastern and southern China coasts, while sea-surface temperatures and monsoon trough positioning add uncertainty for the August–October window. Remaining model spread on track and intensity keeps probabilities closely balanced between 7, 8, and greater-than-8 outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$92วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average formation forecasts from China's National Climate Center, projecting 24–26 named systems and 7–9 landfalls versus the long-term mean of roughly 7, anchor trader sentiment near 7–8 or higher for 2026. Multiple July landfalls, including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul, plus Typhoon Dolphin's imminent Zhejiang approach, have already contributed several events during the early peak period. ENSO transition toward El Niño favors more western Pacific activity and variable steering that can direct storms toward eastern and southern China coasts, while sea-surface temperatures and monsoon trough positioning add uncertainty for the August–October window. Remaining model spread on track and intensity keeps probabilities closely balanced between 7, 8, and greater-than-8 outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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