President Trump’s January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota amid protests over ICE operations and a fatal shooting by an agent remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views. That episode followed large-scale federal immigration deployments and came after Supreme Court rulings curtailed alternative authorities for domestic military use. No invocation has occurred, and probabilities reflect the high bar for presidential action plus ongoing legislative proposals to narrow the statute’s scope ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Further unrest tied to enforcement surges, state-federal clashes, or election-related disputes could alter assessments, while the absence of new escalations keeps implied odds modest.