The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$13,708,081 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
31 พฤษภาคม
7%
30 มิถุนายน
13%
31 ธันวาคม
34%
$13,708,081 ปริมาณ
31 พฤษภาคม
$2,013,159 ปริมาณ
7%
30 มิถุนายน
$1,099,943 ปริมาณ
13%
31 ธันวาคม
$2,399,098 ปริมาณ
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,708,081วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,708,081วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย