The confirmed cancellation of Kanye West’s two sold-out St. Petersburg stadium dates in early October has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward “No.” Planned for Gazprom Arena on October 10–11 as his first major Western performances in Russia since the Ukraine invasion, the shows collapsed after the venue denied any rental agreement, organizers issued refunds, and Russian officials including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova publicly opposed them over the rapper’s past glorification of Hitler and antisemitic remarks. With the October 31 deadline now reached and no alternative Russian dates or venues announced, the market reflects the decisive breakdown of the only credible booking. A last-minute pop-up appearance on the final day remains theoretically possible but faces steep logistical and political barriers.