RSP leads trader pricing for the next Kathmandu mayoral election at 68.5 percent implied probability, well ahead of Nepali Congress at 16 percent and CPN-UML at 13.5 percent, reflecting the party's dominant performance in the March 2026 House of Representatives elections where it swept all fifteen Kathmandu Valley seats. This momentum stems from RSP's merger with former mayor Balendra Shah's network, his high-profile transition to national leadership, and sustained voter preference for alternatives to traditional parties amid ongoing anti-corruption sentiment. Congress and UML trail due to weaker recent showings in the capital and limited organizational gains since the prior local polls. With the next vote scheduled for 2027, current consensus prices capture RSP's organizational edge and brand recognition in the metropolitan contest, though candidate nominations and coalition dynamics could still shift positioning in the interim.