Recent USGS monitoring data from the Southern California Seismic Network reveal only minor seismic events below magnitude 3.0 near Los Angeles in recent weeks, consistent with background activity on regional faults. The primary driver of the 93.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event before 2027 is the short remaining timeframe combined with long historical recurrence intervals of 140–300 years for major ruptures along the southern San Andreas and related systems, per Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Current stress accumulation rates and absence of foreshock sequences or elevated strain measurements support this consensus among traders. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen multi-fault cascade triggered by a moderate precursor event, though such sequences remain statistically rare on these timescales.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
9% โอกาส
$16,501 ปริมาณ
$16,501 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
9% โอกาส
$16,501 ปริมาณ
$16,501 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring data from the Southern California Seismic Network reveal only minor seismic events below magnitude 3.0 near Los Angeles in recent weeks, consistent with background activity on regional faults. The primary driver of the 93.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event before 2027 is the short remaining timeframe combined with long historical recurrence intervals of 140–300 years for major ruptures along the southern San Andreas and related systems, per Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Current stress accumulation rates and absence of foreshock sequences or elevated strain measurements support this consensus among traders. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen multi-fault cascade triggered by a moderate precursor event, though such sequences remain statistically rare on these timescales.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,501วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring data from the Southern California Seismic Network reveal only minor seismic events below magnitude 3.0 near Los Angeles in recent weeks, consistent with background activity on regional faults. The primary driver of the 93.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event before 2027 is the short remaining timeframe combined with long historical recurrence intervals of 140–300 years for major ruptures along the southern San Andreas and related systems, per Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Current stress accumulation rates and absence of foreshock sequences or elevated strain measurements support this consensus among traders. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen multi-fault cascade triggered by a moderate precursor event, though such sequences remain statistically rare on these timescales.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,501วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS monitoring data from the Southern California Seismic Network reveal only minor seismic events below magnitude 3.0 near Los Angeles in recent weeks, consistent with background activity on regional faults. The primary driver of the 93.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event before 2027 is the short remaining timeframe combined with long historical recurrence intervals of 140–300 years for major ruptures along the southern San Andreas and related systems, per Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Current stress accumulation rates and absence of foreshock sequences or elevated strain measurements support this consensus among traders. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen multi-fault cascade triggered by a moderate precursor event, though such sequences remain statistically rare on these timescales.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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