**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) remains in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued candidacy, Republican institutional support, and the absence of any mechanism or announcement forcing an earlier exit.** Miller, representing Ohio’s 7th District, rebuffed summer 2026 calls from figures including Sen. Bernie Moreno (his former father-in-law) and Sen. Jon Husted to withdraw amid domestic-abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he has denied. The withdrawal window closed in August without his cooperation, leaving him as the Republican nominee on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent developments show sustained, if measured, GOP backing: Trump has endorsed him publicly, the NRCC has aired ads, and Miller has loaned his campaign substantial funds while releasing new campaign material addressing the allegations. No criminal charges have been filed against Miller, and the race—now rated a toss-up due to the scandal—remains on track for voters to decide. With the election occurring before year-end and no resignation signals or legal barriers to completing his current term (ending January 2027), the consensus centers on continuity through December absent unforeseen developments.