Incumbent Republican Steve Daines's last-minute withdrawal in early March upended Montana's open Senate race, paving the way for his endorsed successor Kurt Alme to consolidate GOP support with backing from Donald Trump, Tim Sheehy, and Governor Greg Gianforte ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% implied probability, driven by the state's deepening Republican lean—highlighted by Sheehy's 2024 flip of Jon Tester—and Democrats' underfunded, fragmented primary field totaling under $125,000 cash on hand by late March. Independent Seth Bodnar's leading fundraising ($1.3 million raised) and centrist endorsements sustain his 16% odds as a potential vote-splitter, while Democrats languish at 4% amid post-2024 donor fatigue.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Republican 78%
Independent 16.4%
Democrat 3.8%
$72,499 ปริมาณ
$72,499 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
78%
Independent
16%
Democrat
4%
Republican 78%
Independent 16.4%
Democrat 3.8%
$72,499 ปริมาณ
$72,499 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$37,434 ปริมาณ
78%
Independent
$1,510 ปริมาณ
16%
Democrat
$33,554 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines's last-minute withdrawal in early March upended Montana's open Senate race, paving the way for his endorsed successor Kurt Alme to consolidate GOP support with backing from Donald Trump, Tim Sheehy, and Governor Greg Gianforte ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% implied probability, driven by the state's deepening Republican lean—highlighted by Sheehy's 2024 flip of Jon Tester—and Democrats' underfunded, fragmented primary field totaling under $125,000 cash on hand by late March. Independent Seth Bodnar's leading fundraising ($1.3 million raised) and centrist endorsements sustain his 16% odds as a potential vote-splitter, while Democrats languish at 4% amid post-2024 donor fatigue.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,499วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines's last-minute withdrawal in early March upended Montana's open Senate race, paving the way for his endorsed successor Kurt Alme to consolidate GOP support with backing from Donald Trump, Tim Sheehy, and Governor Greg Gianforte ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% implied probability, driven by the state's deepening Republican lean—highlighted by Sheehy's 2024 flip of Jon Tester—and Democrats' underfunded, fragmented primary field totaling under $125,000 cash on hand by late March. Independent Seth Bodnar's leading fundraising ($1.3 million raised) and centrist endorsements sustain his 16% odds as a potential vote-splitter, while Democrats languish at 4% amid post-2024 donor fatigue.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,499วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Steve Daines's last-minute withdrawal in early March upended Montana's open Senate race, paving the way for his endorsed successor Kurt Alme to consolidate GOP support with backing from Donald Trump, Tim Sheehy, and Governor Greg Gianforte ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% implied probability, driven by the state's deepening Republican lean—highlighted by Sheehy's 2024 flip of Jon Tester—and Democrats' underfunded, fragmented primary field totaling under $125,000 cash on hand by late March. Independent Seth Bodnar's leading fundraising ($1.3 million raised) and centrist endorsements sustain his 16% odds as a potential vote-splitter, while Democrats languish at 4% amid post-2024 donor fatigue.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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