Georgia leads the market at 35.9% implied probability due to its No. 1 CFP ranking and recent dominant wins, including a 42-7 rout of Ole Miss that extended its lead in trader consensus. Notre Dame sits second at 18.5% after an 8-1 start and a key victory over Miami, bolstered by returning experience under Marcus Freeman and a favorable independent schedule. Alabama has climbed to 11.7% following a road win at LSU that improved its record and positioning in the SEC. Miami, Texas, and Indiana hold shares near 10% or below on the strength of their 2026 regular-season form and roster continuity, while lower-priced programs reflect fewer confirmed advantages in the current playoff path. Recent Week 10 and 11 results have driven the clearest odds shifts among the top contenders.