Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms lead trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize at 11.5% implied probability, driven by their grassroots humanitarian efforts amid Sudan’s ongoing civil war and recent endorsements like the PRIO shortlist and prior awards such as the Right Livelihood. Save the Children and the International Court of Justice follow closely, reflecting a broad field where no single contender dominates. Traders favor established organizations delivering direct aid or upholding international norms over high-profile individuals, as the Norwegian Nobel Committee typically rewards consistent, verifiable impact rather than political visibility. With the October 9 announcement approaching, momentum hinges on any late shifts in global attention or committee priorities, keeping the market fluid among closely matched options.