Trader consensus heavily favors Magnus Carlsen at 64.5% implied probability to win Norway Chess 2026, reflecting his world No. 1 FIDE rating of 2840 from the May list, dominant home-soil record as a multiple-time champion, and red-hot form with victories at the Chess.com Open Playoffs, Global Championship, and FIDE Freestyle World Championship in late April. Alireza Firouzja (10%) and Vincent Keymer (9%) trail as top challengers, with Keymer's recent Grenke Freestyle Open title on tiebreaks elevating his standing, while Wesley So (8.5%) gains from his American Cup crown and a key win over Firouzja in the Super Rapid & Blitz Poland last week. Praggnanandhaa (8%) and defending World Champion Gukesh (7.5%) round out contenders, though Gukesh's recent struggles at Prague and Menorca Masters temper expectations in this elite classical field with Armageddon tiebreaks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMagnus Carlsen 65%
Alireza Firouzja 10%
Vincent Keymer 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
65%
Alireza Firouzja
10%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Wesley So
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
8%
Gukesh Dommaraju
8%
Magnus Carlsen 65%
Alireza Firouzja 10%
Vincent Keymer 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
65%
Alireza Firouzja
10%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Wesley So
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
8%
Gukesh Dommaraju
8%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the Norway Chess 2026 tournament per the rules provided by the event organizer, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the Norway Chess 2026 tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the event organizer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the Norway Chess 2026 tournament per the rules provided by the event organizer, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the Norway Chess 2026 tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the event organizer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Magnus Carlsen at 64.5% implied probability to win Norway Chess 2026, reflecting his world No. 1 FIDE rating of 2840 from the May list, dominant home-soil record as a multiple-time champion, and red-hot form with victories at the Chess.com Open Playoffs, Global Championship, and FIDE Freestyle World Championship in late April. Alireza Firouzja (10%) and Vincent Keymer (9%) trail as top challengers, with Keymer's recent Grenke Freestyle Open title on tiebreaks elevating his standing, while Wesley So (8.5%) gains from his American Cup crown and a key win over Firouzja in the Super Rapid & Blitz Poland last week. Praggnanandhaa (8%) and defending World Champion Gukesh (7.5%) round out contenders, though Gukesh's recent struggles at Prague and Menorca Masters temper expectations in this elite classical field with Armageddon tiebreaks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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