Vitality leads trader consensus at around 30% implied probability due to recent ESL Pro League and StarLadder titles plus proven Major pedigree, yet MOUZ sits close behind after claiming the world number-one ranking and an undefeated IEM Beijing run. Spirit, FURIA, and defending champion Falcons follow in a narrow pack, each backed by strong autumn results and deep playoff experience. The open field stems from no team dominating the second half of 2026, combined with the three-stage Swiss format that rewards consistency while exposing favorites to early upsets from motivated Stage 1 and 2 sides. Recent roster stability and map-pool familiarity further sustain the bunched pricing among these contenders.