The NFL single-season rushing touchdowns record stands at 28, set by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, with recent leaders rarely exceeding 18-20. For the 2026 season, consensus projections place top running backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry in the 12-14 touchdown range, reflecting committee backfields, increased quarterback rushing usage near the goal line, and pass-oriented schemes that limit goal-line volume. This creates competitive balance around the 53.5% “No” implied probability, as traders weigh historical outliers against modern usage trends. A sustained workhorse role for one elite back in a run-heavy offense, minimal injuries, and favorable short-yardage opportunities could elevate totals toward record territory, while further backfield splits or defensive schemes prioritizing the pass would reinforce the current edge for “No.”