The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has elevated expectations that the justices will apply the “common use” test from Heller and Bruen to semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with prior statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh questioning the constitutionality of such restrictions, has pushed the implied probability of invalidation slightly above even. Recent signals include a July 2026 federal appeals court ruling striking down New Jersey’s ban and supportive filings from the Trump Justice Department emphasizing millions of lawful owners. Oral arguments scheduled for the fall term leave room for narrower holdings or procedural outcomes that could temper the result, keeping trader consensus near 56 percent for a broad invalidation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?
SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?
56% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2027
56% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has elevated expectations that the justices will apply the “common use” test from Heller and Bruen to semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with prior statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh questioning the constitutionality of such restrictions, has pushed the implied probability of invalidation slightly above even. Recent signals include a July 2026 federal appeals court ruling striking down New Jersey’s ban and supportive filings from the Trump Justice Department emphasizing millions of lawful owners. Oral arguments scheduled for the fall term leave room for narrower holdings or procedural outcomes that could temper the result, keeping trader consensus near 56 percent for a broad invalidation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has elevated expectations that the justices will apply the “common use” test from Heller and Bruen to semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with prior statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh questioning the constitutionality of such restrictions, has pushed the implied probability of invalidation slightly above even. Recent signals include a July 2026 federal appeals court ruling striking down New Jersey’s ban and supportive filings from the Trump Justice Department emphasizing millions of lawful owners. Oral arguments scheduled for the fall term leave room for narrower holdings or procedural outcomes that could temper the result, keeping trader consensus near 56 percent for a broad invalidation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has elevated expectations that the justices will apply the “common use” test from Heller and Bruen to semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with prior statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh questioning the constitutionality of such restrictions, has pushed the implied probability of invalidation slightly above even. Recent signals include a July 2026 federal appeals court ruling striking down New Jersey’s ban and supportive filings from the Trump Justice Department emphasizing millions of lawful owners. Oral arguments scheduled for the fall term leave room for narrower holdings or procedural outcomes that could temper the result, keeping trader consensus near 56 percent for a broad invalidation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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