The Trump administration's recent push to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro for his alleged role as defense minister in the 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue group has emerged as the primary driver behind the 61.5% implied probability for federal charges. U.S. Justice Department officials have signaled plans to unseal an indictment in Miami as early as May 20, tying the move to longstanding efforts to increase pressure on Cuba's communist government amid broader diplomatic tensions and threats of further U.S. actions. This development, reported by multiple outlets citing anonymous sources, aligns with historical calls from Cuban American lawmakers and exile communities for accountability over the incident that killed four people. Traders appear to weigh the timing against procedural steps such as grand jury approval, while noting the potential for delays or shifts in enforcement priorities.