US strike on Mexico remains unlikely through year-end according to trader consensus, with December 31 priced near 9-12 percent amid ongoing diplomatic friction. The Trump administration has designated major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, expanded intelligence sharing via the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, and publicly pressed Mexico for greater cooperation or unilateral options, including statements favoring land strikes and special operations against fentanyl labs. Mexico has rejected direct US military involvement on its territory while conducting its own raids, such as the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader El Mencho with US-provided targeting support. Key barriers include Mexican sovereignty concerns, risks to bilateral trade and security agreements, limited Senate or regional backing for escalation, and preference for border deployments and coercive diplomacy over kinetic action. No major new military developments have shifted probabilities higher in recent months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$3,440,830 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
31 ธันวาคม
12%
$3,440,830 ปริมาณ
31 ธันวาคม
$712,369 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US strike on Mexico remains unlikely through year-end according to trader consensus, with December 31 priced near 9-12 percent amid ongoing diplomatic friction. The Trump administration has designated major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, expanded intelligence sharing via the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, and publicly pressed Mexico for greater cooperation or unilateral options, including statements favoring land strikes and special operations against fentanyl labs. Mexico has rejected direct US military involvement on its territory while conducting its own raids, such as the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader El Mencho with US-provided targeting support. Key barriers include Mexican sovereignty concerns, risks to bilateral trade and security agreements, limited Senate or regional backing for escalation, and preference for border deployments and coercive diplomacy over kinetic action. No major new military developments have shifted probabilities higher in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,440,830วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US strike on Mexico remains unlikely through year-end according to trader consensus, with December 31 priced near 9-12 percent amid ongoing diplomatic friction. The Trump administration has designated major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, expanded intelligence sharing via the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, and publicly pressed Mexico for greater cooperation or unilateral options, including statements favoring land strikes and special operations against fentanyl labs. Mexico has rejected direct US military involvement on its territory while conducting its own raids, such as the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader El Mencho with US-provided targeting support. Key barriers include Mexican sovereignty concerns, risks to bilateral trade and security agreements, limited Senate or regional backing for escalation, and preference for border deployments and coercive diplomacy over kinetic action. No major new military developments have shifted probabilities higher in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,440,830วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strike on Mexico remains unlikely through year-end according to trader consensus, with December 31 priced near 9-12 percent amid ongoing diplomatic friction. The Trump administration has designated major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, expanded intelligence sharing via the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, and publicly pressed Mexico for greater cooperation or unilateral options, including statements favoring land strikes and special operations against fentanyl labs. Mexico has rejected direct US military involvement on its territory while conducting its own raids, such as the February 2026 operation that killed CJNG leader El Mencho with US-provided targeting support. Key barriers include Mexican sovereignty concerns, risks to bilateral trade and security agreements, limited Senate or regional backing for escalation, and preference for border deployments and coercive diplomacy over kinetic action. No major new military developments have shifted probabilities higher in recent months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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